主题：04/08/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Some more economic reporting with weekly jobless claims, import/export prices, and the trade balance. Will they mean a whole lot? Not likely right ahead of Good Friday. On the other hand there will be light volume, and as seen Wednesday, that allows the few buyers and sellers to push the indices all around. The nice thing is that the leaders moved up well despite the volatility and we can get another nice move from them Thursday and perhaps into next week ahead of the big flood of earnings.

The questions we need to ask are the following. First, do we want to buy in on a further move upside ahead of a 3-day weekend? We added to some positions Wednesday on PCLN and NVLS. Some here in the room added some BRCM and others in their own accounts. We will likely see some more on Thursday as some of those leaders that have pulled back are ready to move again, e.g. WFR and TSM, as well as new plays such as NETL, ANF and others.

There are plenty of set ups out there; you just have to decide how many you want to get in here ahead of a holiday (if they show the move) and ahead of earnings. We like to try and get plays that don't have earnings themselves for awhile, i.e. they have already announced in February or March or don't announce until the end of April or on into May or June. There is definitely some upside momentum here with the leaders even with the light volume. Again, what we are looking at here is a continuing rise into earnings even if volume is light. We will ride it with our current positions and some choice new positions knowing that we will be happy with a shorter run given earnings season can turn the market further up or stall the move.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1590.66

Resistance:

1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1623 is the April peak

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

The 10 day EMA at 1565

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

The 50 day EMA at 1503

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day SMA at 1476

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 825.16

Resistance:

The 90 day SMA at 827

833 is the March 2009 peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

846 is the April peak

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 10 day EMA at 818

815 is the early December 2008 low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

The 50 day EMA at 804

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7837.11

Resistance:

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 7983

The April peak at 8076

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 10 day EMA at 7793

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 50 day EMA at 7689

The 18 day EMA at 7680

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 7 - Tuesday

February Consumer Credit (14:00): -$7.5B actual versus -$1.5B expected, $8.1B prior (revised from $1.8B)

April 8 - Wednesday

February Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -1.5% actual versus -0.6% expected, -0.7% prior (revised from -0.9%)

Crude Oil Inventories, 04/03 (10:30): +1.65M actual, +2.84M prior

April 9 - Thursday

March Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): 0.1% prior

Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.6% prior

Initial Jobless Claims, 04/04 (8:30): 669K prior

Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$36.5B expected, -$36.0B prior

April 10 - Friday

March Treasury Budget (14:00): -$157.0B expected, -$48.2B prior