主题：04/03/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Friday did not give us the test of the Thursday gap move and with the market gains on the day many stocks we were looking at just before the Thursday gap remain out of reach. Why out of reach? Because chasing the bus at this level is a lower probability play. It is a play without a really good edge. It is trying to beat the train across the tracks.

Now that does not mean there are not very good stocks still in position to move higher. That is why we were looking at DRIV for example on Friday. While many stocks have rallied other good stocks have been consolidating previous upside moves and are ready to run higher. As noted earlier, they can keep the market moving if enough of them advance. There are still quite a few of those but there are also quite a few that are a bit too extended to chase right now. Not necessarily so extended the entire market has to correct back; there can always be rotation by stocks and sectors, and indeed that is the healthiest of all market action. When groups of leaders take turns taking the point similar to a breakaway working together in a bike race good moves can be made.

So we are going to keep looking for prime upside plays ready to move. We are also going to look for tests of breakouts. Some of the stocks that broke higher Wednesday shot to the upside and Friday were testing back some. A quick test by these stocks often sets up another surge so we will be looking at those in the light of getting a pullback early in the week and moving in on the bounce.

As seen Friday, there are also downside opportunities even as the market rallied. If the market runs out of gas prematurely on this attempt at a second upside leg off the March low that is a signal of weakness. That means the financials and some other stocks are going to head lower and we have to see what kind of test they make. We are trolling for stocks ripe to turn lower such as GENZ and MCK in the event this upside move just doesn't quite cut it.

It was a good week and we banked a lot of gain, still letting good positions run higher, and picking up other good positions as the opportunity arose. We had to avoid taking everything off the table because even as we bank gain on the way up we also let at least a part of our winners run higher to keep logging gains as long as the move holds its ground. That way we have some solid gain in the bank and can get in on the really bigger runs without feeling the need to sell out altogether and miss out on the really strong moves.

The key now, as always, is to be patient and let the plays set up and try to avoid chasing that bus. Better to jump out and ambush the position as it initiates its move. So, we keep our eyes on leaders and look for opportunities to get in as they test or set up new solid bases and buy points.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1621.87

Resistance:

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1603 is the December peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

The 10 day EMA at 1549

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day EMA at 1492

The 50 day SMA at 1471

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 842.50

Resistance:

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

839 is the early October 2008 low

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 90 day SMA at 828

818 is the early November 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

The 10 day EMA at 811

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day EMA at 800

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 8017.59

Resistance:

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 90 day SMA at 8006

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7909 is the early January low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 10 day EMA at 7739

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 50 day EMA at 7666

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

The 18 day EMA at 7511

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 7 - Tuesday

February Consumer Credit (14:00): -$1.5B expected, $1.8B prior

April 8 - Wednesday

February Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -0.6% expected, -0.7% prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 04/03 (10:30): +2.84M prior

April 9 - Thursday

March Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): 0.1% prior

Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.6% prior

Initial Jobless Claims, 04/04 (8:30): 699K prior

Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$36.5B expected, -$36.0B prior

April 10 - Friday

March Treasury Budget (14:00): -$157.0B expected, -$48.2B prior