主题：04/01/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Initial jobless claims and Factory orders. Jobless claims may not be as bad or at least we may see some softening of those numbers over the next few weeks as the Challenger/Gray survey is showing signs that layoff announcements are slowing. Factory orders are showing signs of life. They are expected to turn in a positive report. A positive positive so to speak.

That is about all the economic news for the day though we are in earnings warning season and anything is possible. And we cannot and are not forgetting about earnings season. It is expected to stink and thus we are still being careful with current positions with the idea that more rallying will be used to bank some more gain. We are picking up positions in good stocks here and there but there is no boat loading. If the market continues higher we have great stocks already to make us some great money and we will add incrementally to those as the opportunity arises. We still anticipate using any upside strength to get a bit lighter overall but focus on some areas as well such as techs and chips.

The indices, particularly NASDAQ and SOX are setting up for nice breakouts. Financials are showing more strength and more prolonged strength than anticipated. If the leading NASDAQ and SOX start leading again after these consolidations and tests, with the financials still in the game this market rally could put up an impressive second leg off the March low.

To that end we continue to look for those good plays to do that incremental adding to our upside to give us good additional bang for our buck on a further run higher. We are not going to give up on the downside; we are simply going to keep looking at possible plays and have them at the ready in the event the earnings warnings/results suddenly pull the rug from under this attempt to get a serious second upside leg off the March low under steam.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1551.60

Resistance:

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1587 is the March 2009 high

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 18 day EMA at 1491

The 50 day EMA at 1482

The 50 day SMA at 1465

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 811.08

Resistance:

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 827

833 is the March 2009 peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day EMA at 797

The 18 day EMA at 787

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7761.60

Resistance:

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8002

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 50 day EMA at 7638

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

The 18 day EMA at 7511

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 31 - Tuesday

March Consumer Confidence (9:00): 26.0 actual versus 28.0 expected, 25.3 prior (revised from 25.0)

S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index, January (9:00): -18.97% actual versus - 18.6% expected, 18.55% prior

Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 31.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.2 prior

April 01 - Wednesday

March ADP Employment Change (8:15): -742K actual versus -663K expected, -697K prior

ISM Index, March (10:00): 36.3 actual versus 36.0 expected, 35.8 prior

Construction Spending, February (10:00): -0.9% actual versus -1.9% expected, -3.5% prior (revised from -3.3%)

Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): 2.1% actual versus 0.0% expected, -7.7% prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 3/27 (10:00): +22.8M, +3.3M prior

April 02 - Thursday

3/28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 650K expected, NA prior

Factor Orders, February (10:00): 1.5% expected, -1.9% prior

April 03 - Friday

Nonfarm Payrolls, March (8:30): -658K expected, -651K prior

Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 8.5% expected, 8.1% prior

March Average Workweek (8:30): 33.3 expected, 33.3 prior

Hourly Earnings, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior

ISM Services, March (10:00): 42.0 expected, 41.6 prior