主题:04/01/2009 Market View -- 宁子
Initial jobless claims and Factory orders. Jobless claims may not be as bad or at least we may see some softening of those numbers over the next few weeks as the Challenger/Gray survey is showing signs that layoff announcements are slowing. Factory orders are showing signs of life. They are expected to turn in a positive report. A positive positive so to speak.
That is about all the economic news for the day though we are in earnings warning season and anything is possible. And we cannot and are not forgetting about earnings season. It is expected to stink and thus we are still being careful with current positions with the idea that more rallying will be used to bank some more gain. We are picking up positions in good stocks here and there but there is no boat loading. If the market continues higher we have great stocks already to make us some great money and we will add incrementally to those as the opportunity arises. We still anticipate using any upside strength to get a bit lighter overall but focus on some areas as well such as techs and chips.
The indices, particularly NASDAQ and SOX are setting up for nice breakouts. Financials are showing more strength and more prolonged strength than anticipated. If the leading NASDAQ and SOX start leading again after these consolidations and tests, with the financials still in the game this market rally could put up an impressive second leg off the March low.
To that end we continue to look for those good plays to do that incremental adding to our upside to give us good additional bang for our buck on a further run higher. We are not going to give up on the downside; we are simply going to keep looking at possible plays and have them at the ready in the event the earnings warnings/results suddenly pull the rug from under this attempt to get a serious second upside leg off the March low under steam.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1551.60
Resistance:
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1587 is the March 2009 high
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1644 from August 2003
The January closing low at 1653
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 18 day EMA at 1491
The 50 day EMA at 1482
The 50 day SMA at 1465
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
1434 is the January intraday low
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday
1262 from July 2002
1192 is the July 2002 intraday low
1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low
S&P 500: Closed at 811.08
Resistance:
815 is the early December 2008 low
818 is the early November 2008 low
The 90 day SMA at 827
833 is the March 2009 peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
The 50 day EMA at 797
The 18 day EMA at 787
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
722 is a December 1996 low
681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing
665 from August 1996
656-654 from January, April 1996
607-05 from November 1995
Dow: Closed at 7761.60
Resistance:
7867 is the early February low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7909 is the early January low
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The 90 day SMA at 8002
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 7638
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
The 18 day EMA at 7511
7449 is the November 2008 intraday low
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
7115 is the February 2009 closing low
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
6528 is the November 1996 peak
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
6356 is the April 1997 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
March 31 - Tuesday
March Consumer Confidence (9:00): 26.0 actual versus 28.0 expected, 25.3 prior (revised from 25.0)
S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index, January (9:00): -18.97% actual versus - 18.6% expected, 18.55% prior
Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 31.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.2 prior
April 01 - Wednesday
March ADP Employment Change (8:15): -742K actual versus -663K expected, -697K prior
ISM Index, March (10:00): 36.3 actual versus 36.0 expected, 35.8 prior
Construction Spending, February (10:00): -0.9% actual versus -1.9% expected, -3.5% prior (revised from -3.3%)
Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): 2.1% actual versus 0.0% expected, -7.7% prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 3/27 (10:00): +22.8M, +3.3M prior
April 02 - Thursday
3/28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 650K expected, NA prior
Factor Orders, February (10:00): 1.5% expected, -1.9% prior
April 03 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, March (8:30): -658K expected, -651K prior
Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 8.5% expected, 8.1% prior
March Average Workweek (8:30): 33.3 expected, 33.3 prior
Hourly Earnings, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
ISM Services, March (10:00): 42.0 expected, 41.6 prior
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂THE ECONOMY 宁子 字7664 2009-04-01 20:41:44
🙂THE ECONOMY (cont) 宁子 字4873 2009-04-01 20:42:25
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字7084 2009-04-01 20:42:58
🙂THURSDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 宁子 字3765 2009-04-02 19:41:26