主题：03/30/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Two days down on overall lower volume. Another downside day without a major breach of news lows on this selling and on lower volume is constructive and can lead to a rebound if financials stop with the selling and the techs and chips take to the lead.

SP500 broke its recent uptrend from the March low and that is not a good sign for the upside. It did occur on that light trade, and that helps, but how many times has selling started on a light volume session only to intensify? More than a couple during this selling from last summer.

That means you have to take care of further downside from here if the financials cannot find a reason to catch a bid once more. There was no chance of that Monday and with the size of the gains from the low a bit more testing by the financials is typically in order. As noted above, an SP500 test of the November low is logical and would not mean the end of the rebound move. NASDAQ is trying to hold its support, and if SP500 sells to that low the question is how far does NASDAQ sell and how much of its move does it bitterly cling to along with its religion and guns. Large cap techs, despite their gap lower and break of their own up trendline off the March low, easily held support at 1200 and bounced. There is promise in those techs yet again, but yet again they have to fend off the albatross-like weight of the financials as the latter continue to thrash around in this economy.

So . . . the easiest path for the financials and thus SP500 right now is further selling toward the November low. For techs it is to sell further as well but NASDAQ has some support it can play with a bit. SOX is back in its range, and though it is the strongest that doesn't mean it gets smacked around a bit more as well. As long as our positions hold their near support points we can leave them alone, and it was good to see them bounce late in the session. Not enough to remove them from harm's way, but it showed there was life still in those market leaders. If we get a bounce Tuesday we see how strong and gauge if we want to use it to take some off the table. If the market doesn't bounce then we want the upside to hold in their near support ranges and set up for the next move higher. Another modest day of pullbacks (and that means nothing like Monday) on light volume and they have done the requisite testing and are in position. Then we see if they hold and can bounce.

Right now, however, with the trend breaks, we are looking for some more testing to prove just how solid the leadership is before the market shows any renewed bounce, particularly with earnings season close at hand. It is a good thing to get some of the froth out of the move ahead of earnings because a run into earnings without any fade is begging for selling on the news. Of course earnings are expected to stink such as they have not stunk in years and years. The general idea is that earnings will be so bad that you have to think they might be good. In other words you know when a company reports a horrific quarter but announces restructuring, new management, etc. and the stock bounces. It is bad, it is putrid, but there are only so many degrees of bad. That will certainly happen for some stocks, but for the majority, bad is usually bad, and thus any rise off this test is good for some selling when it starts to stall out.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1501.80

Resistance:

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1587 is the March 2009 high

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day EMA at 1477

The 18 day EMA at 1478

The 50 day SMA at 1463

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 787.53

Resistance:

The 50 day EMA at 797

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 828

833 is the March 2009 peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

The 18 day EMA at 783

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7522.02

Resistance:

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

The 50 day EMA at 7634

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8013

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

The 18 day EMA at 7466

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 31 - Tuesday

March Consumer Confidence (9:00): 28.0 expected, 25.0 prior

S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index, January (9:00): - 18.6% expected, 18.55% prior

Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 34.4 expected, 34.2 prior

April 01 - Wednesday

March ADP Employment Change (8:15): -648K expected, -697K prior

ISM Index, March (10:00): 36.0 expected, 35.8 prior

Construction Spending, February (10:00): -1.6% expected, -3.3% prior

Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): -2.0% expected, -7.7% prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 3/27 (10:00): +3.3M prior

Auto Sales, March (14:00): 2.9M prior

Truck Sales, March (14:00): 3.5M prior

April 02 - Thursday

3/28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 653K expected, NA prior

Factor Orders, February (10:00): -0.3% expected, -1.9% prior

April 03 - Friday

Nonfarm Payrolls, March (8:30): -656K expected, -651K prior

Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 8.5% expected, 8.1% prior

March Average Workweek (8:30): 33.3 expected, 33.3 prior

Hourly Earnings, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior

ISM Services, March (10:00): 42.0 expected, 41.6 prior