主题：03/26/2009 Market View -- 宁子

The weekend comes and the end of quarter is just around the corner. Stocks continue to show buying strength, even building on strength, as the quarter end nears. Our best laid plan is that stocks continue higher on to the quarter end on Tuesday, maybe a bit beyond, just ahead of earnings season. A good run driven by some window dressing ahead of an earnings season that shows some tantalizingly interesting early strength puts the market in a precarious position in terms of continuing this part of the run. Almost three weeks of upside, hitting key resistance levels, end of quarter buying winding down, uncertainty about earnings. Interesting combination.

Thus we stick to the plan, letting positions run higher and with any luck on into the end of quarter on Tuesday or later. We will continue taking gain into any run. Indeed a strong gap higher Friday and we should all look at banking some more gain. Right now futures are modestly lower, however, so we will see. A build into a stronger session from a modestly lower open is yet another sign of strength and bodes well for the market overall. A build into a strong session and we sell some just as we would on a gap higher.

What about new buys? The big funds are chasing some stocks higher into earnings and there are some enticing set ups such as BRCM with its sudden test but nice recovery Thursday. So close to the potential peak how much new money do you want to risk? It would have to be, pardon the phrase, fast money looking to squeeze a bit more out or on a stock we feel will manage to hold well on a test and then rebound quicker than most. Earnings make things more of a crapshoot as well, and with the run into results you have to take into consideration the run into the news and selling when it becomes fact. Thus partial positions for the most part if looking to ride through end of quarter.

Moreover, it is Friday as well and we typically don't like to buy on Friday but sell instead. When the market is making a bullish move, Fridays are typically better sessions to sell than buy as stocks move higher into the weekend then start lower on Monday and build back up through the week. More reason to use any upside to take gain versus buy a lot of new positions.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1587.00

Resistance:

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day EMA at 1473

The 18 day EMA at 1467

The 50 day SMA at 1463

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 832.86

Resistance:

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

The 90 day SMA at 829

818 is the early November 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day EMA at 798 held on the Wednesday low

The 50 day SMA at 792

The 18 day EMA at 779

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7924.56

Resistance:

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8030

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7909 is the early January low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 50 day EMA at 7633

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

The 18 day EMA at 7423

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 23 - Monday

February Existing Home Sales (10:00): 4.72M actual versus 4.45M expected, 4.49M prior

March 25 - Wednesday

February Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 3.4 actual versus -5.2 prior (revised from -7.3)

Durables, Ex-Transportation, February (8:30): 3.9% actual versus -2.0% expected, -5.9% prior (revised from -2.5%)

New Home Sales, February (10:00): 337K actual versus 300K expected, 322K prior (revised from 309K)

Crude Oil Inventories, 3/20 (10:30): +3.3M actual versus +1.942M prior

March 26 - Thursday

03/21 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 652K actual versus 650K expected, 644K prior (revised from 646K)

Q4 GDP - Final, Q4 (8:30): -6.3% actual versus -6.6% expected, -6.2% prior

GDP Price Index, Q4 (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior

March 27 - Friday

February Personal Income (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior

Michigan Sentiment - Rev, March (9:55): 56.0 expected