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主题:03/26/2009 Market View -- 宁子
The weekend comes and the end of quarter is just around the corner. Stocks continue to show buying strength, even building on strength, as the quarter end nears. Our best laid plan is that stocks continue higher on to the quarter end on Tuesday, maybe a bit beyond, just ahead of earnings season. A good run driven by some window dressing ahead of an earnings season that shows some tantalizingly interesting early strength puts the market in a precarious position in terms of continuing this part of the run. Almost three weeks of upside, hitting key resistance levels, end of quarter buying winding down, uncertainty about earnings. Interesting combination.
Thus we stick to the plan, letting positions run higher and with any luck on into the end of quarter on Tuesday or later. We will continue taking gain into any run. Indeed a strong gap higher Friday and we should all look at banking some more gain. Right now futures are modestly lower, however, so we will see. A build into a stronger session from a modestly lower open is yet another sign of strength and bodes well for the market overall. A build into a strong session and we sell some just as we would on a gap higher.
What about new buys? The big funds are chasing some stocks higher into earnings and there are some enticing set ups such as BRCM with its sudden test but nice recovery Thursday. So close to the potential peak how much new money do you want to risk? It would have to be, pardon the phrase, fast money looking to squeeze a bit more out or on a stock we feel will manage to hold well on a test and then rebound quicker than most. Earnings make things more of a crapshoot as well, and with the run into results you have to take into consideration the run into the news and selling when it becomes fact. Thus partial positions for the most part if looking to ride through end of quarter.
Moreover, it is Friday as well and we typically don't like to buy on Friday but sell instead. When the market is making a bullish move, Fridays are typically better sessions to sell than buy as stocks move higher into the weekend then start lower on Monday and build back up through the week. More reason to use any upside to take gain versus buy a lot of new positions.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1587.00
Resistance:
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1644 from August 2003
The January closing low at 1653
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 50 day EMA at 1473
The 18 day EMA at 1467
The 50 day SMA at 1463
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
1434 is the January intraday low
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday
1262 from July 2002
1192 is the July 2002 intraday low
1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low
S&P 500: Closed at 832.86
Resistance:
839 is the early October 2008 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
The 90 day SMA at 829
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
The 50 day EMA at 798 held on the Wednesday low
The 50 day SMA at 792
The 18 day EMA at 779
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
722 is a December 1996 low
681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing
665 from August 1996
656-654 from January, April 1996
607-05 from November 1995
Dow: Closed at 7924.56
Resistance:
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The 90 day SMA at 8030
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
7909 is the early January low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 7633
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7449 is the November 2008 intraday low
The 18 day EMA at 7423
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
7115 is the February 2009 closing low
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
6528 is the November 1996 peak
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
6356 is the April 1997 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
March 23 - Monday
February Existing Home Sales (10:00): 4.72M actual versus 4.45M expected, 4.49M prior
March 25 - Wednesday
February Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 3.4 actual versus -5.2 prior (revised from -7.3)
Durables, Ex-Transportation, February (8:30): 3.9% actual versus -2.0% expected, -5.9% prior (revised from -2.5%)
New Home Sales, February (10:00): 337K actual versus 300K expected, 322K prior (revised from 309K)
Crude Oil Inventories, 3/20 (10:30): +3.3M actual versus +1.942M prior
March 26 - Thursday
03/21 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 652K actual versus 650K expected, 644K prior (revised from 646K)
Q4 GDP - Final, Q4 (8:30): -6.3% actual versus -6.6% expected, -6.2% prior
GDP Price Index, Q4 (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior
March 27 - Friday
February Personal Income (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior
Michigan Sentiment - Rev, March (9:55): 56.0 expected
- 相关回复 上下关系4
🙂03/26/2009 Market View 宁子 字6299 2009-03-26 20:41:45
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字7394 2009-03-26 20:42:19
🙂FRIDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 宁子 字4382 2009-03-26 22:14:25