主题：03/24/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Tonight the President campaigns for his massive budget bill that is part of his massive stimulus plan and massive bailout proposals. Massive amounts of debt, so massive that even China is now calling for a currency other than the dollar as the 'world' currency. There was an unwritten promise with the rest of the world after we went off the gold standard that we would not explode our deficit to levels this high. Europeans, the consummate government spenders, ask our leaders and businessmen why we have suddenly gone insane with our spending. With our allies wondering about the Administration's economic acumen it is no wonder our enemies are making public statements about the dollar and our profligate spending.

Will it have a market impact? That is the continual threat hanging over the market these days, i.e. some government program to save the world, some legislation punish a discrete group of hapless saps just trying to do their jobs, or some new massive movement of our government to a more European model. We have said it before: 1% GDP growth is a good year for Europe. Do we want that to be our model? We broke away from Europe 233 years ago to start the most successful economy and country in the world's history. Do we give up all of that because a time of crisis, something we have handled and conquered before?

In any event the market is managing to move higher off its bear market low, able to rise as some more certainty, good or bad, comes into the regulatory and bailout picture. The near term question is whether the indices are ready to move higher already or are still nursing a headache after Monday's premature move (only 2 days of pullback and then whoosh) and need another day or two of rest to lay a better foundation for the second leg higher.

As noted above, there are more and more leaders forming up, taking position to support a further market move. Early leaders are testing back, financials are getting in position to move again, energy remains set up, and commodities in general remain solid. There is leadership at the ready. A day or two more of modestly testing would be great. We will just have to see if the market is ready to deliver. If it is we will move in to catch a run through the end of the month and ahead of earnings season in April.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1516.52

Resistance:

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1666 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day EMA at 1466

The 50 day SMA at 1462

The 18 day EMA at 1444

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 806.35

Resistance:

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 831

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

The 50 day SMA at 794

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

The 18 day EMA at 767

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7660.21

Resistance:

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8046

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 50 day EMA at 7616

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

The 18 day EMA at 7318

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 23 - Monday

February Existing Home Sales (10:00): 4.72M actual versus 4.45M expected, 4.49M prior

March 25 - Wednesday

February Durable Goods Orders (8:30): -2.4% expected, -5.2% prior

Durables, Ex-Transportation, February (8:30): -2.0% expected, -2.5% prior

New Home Sales, February (10:00): 300K expected, 309K prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 3/20 (10:30): +1.942M prior

March 26 - Thursday

03/21 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 650K expected, 647K prior

Q4 GDP - Final, Q4 (8:30): -6.6% expected, -6.2% prior

GDP Price Index, Q4 (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior

March 27 - Friday

February Personal Income (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior

Michigan Sentiment - Rev, March (9:55): 56.0 expected