主题：03/18/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside: Some are still ready to make the break higher.

Play Date: 03/18/2009

EPIQ (Epiq Systems--$16.79; +0.57; optionable): Business software

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epiq.html

After Hours: $16.79

EARNINGS: 02/24/2009

STATUS: Setting back up for us, forming a short ascending triangle the past six weeks, trying to shake off those prior highs in December and late January. Strong money flow is leading the way higher and it looks as if EPIQ is ready to resume its upside ways.

Volume: 413.406K Avg Volume: 351.984K

BUY POINT: $17.38 Volume=500K Target=$19.95 Stop=$16.16

POSITION: FQU GC - July $15c (70 delta, low OI) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/epiq.html

Play Date: 03/18/2009

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor--$9.08; +0.10; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsm.html

After Hours: $9.20

EARNINGS: 01/22/2009

STATUS: Test breakout. TSM broke out from its 12 week ascending base last week, moving over the 200 day SMA (8.71) on some solid trade. Then it started to test early this week, coming back to the 200 day, then bouncing Tuesday and Wednesday after starting lower both days. Wednesday the volume kicked back in as TSM hit a new closing high on this move. Nice break, nice test, and looking to move in as TSM continues the breakout run.

Volume: 27.978M Avg Volume: 20.619M

BUY POINT: $9.19 Volume=35M Target=$10.96 Stop=$8.65

POSITION: TSM GU - July $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tsm.html

Play Date: 03/18/2009

USO (United States Oil Fund ETF--$29.61; +0.17; optionable)

After Hours: $29.80

STATUS: USO is working on an 11 week cup base that is setting up a trend reversal. It has worked laterally the past two weeks, bumping up at the 50 day EMA (29.74) the past two sessions. A break through that level reverses the trend. Want to see some strong volume on that break higher through the 50 day.

Volume: 26.512M Avg Volume: 36.005M

BUY POINT: $30.08 Volume=38M Target=$36.77 Stop=$28.18

POSITION: UBO GC - Julyu $29c (57 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uso.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/18/2009

AAPL (Apple Computer--$101.52; +1.86; optionable): iPods

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html

After Hours: $101.36

EARNINGS: 01/21/2009

STATUS: Rolling channel. Blasphemy to some to look at AAPL to the downside, but it has traded in this range up to 103 for almost 4 months. Maybe that is too long and this will be the breakout, but intraday it rallied to 103 and faded. After hours it was back at 103 on the ORCL earnings. The entire move has been on low volume, suggesting not a lot of buying and thus a roll back down. With the market dealing with the Fed, however, we need to be careful and not get a head fake early in the day. Indeed we could see AAPL move over 103 on Thursday and then gap back down Friday, a classic sign the range is going to push it back down. We will let it show us the move either way. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.

Volume: 28.436M Avg Volume: 28.128M

BUY POINT: $99.66 Volume=30M Target=$94.55 Stop=$102.11

POSITION: QAA PT - Apr. $100p (-41 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html

Play Date: 03/18/2009

CPLA (Capella Education--$49.23; -1.11; optionable): Education and training

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpla.html

After Hours: $50.30

EARNINGS: 02/12/2009

STATUS: Put. Formed a broad top from December to February and then broke down through the 200 day SMA (53.12) to start March. Rebounded through last week but came up short, and tanked. Rebounded on light volume as the market rallied back Tuesday and Wednesday. Failed at the 10 day EMA on this rebound and looking for CPLA to turn back down from here and really make the plunge. Our initial target is not that ambitious but a move to the target lands a 41%ish gain, but this pattern could head much lower than that.

Volume: 260.136K Avg Volume: 301.6K

BUY POINT: $48.66 Volume=350K Target=$44.55 Stop=$50.41

POSITION: CQX PJ - Apr. $50p (-47 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cpla.html

Play Date: 03/18/2009

DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$74.97; +0.89; optionable)

After Hours: $74.96

STATUS: Put. DJ30 rallied up to its November closing low and thus DIA did the same. Wednesday it touched the November low on the high and faded. Despite all of the Fed hype it could not punch through. Will see how the Dow reacts to the Fed news on the day after. If it stalls, however, it can give us a nice move lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.

Volume: 35.907M Avg Volume: 29.407M

BUY POINT: $74.05 Volume=37M Target=$71.00 Stop=$75.65

POSITION: DIJ PW - Apr. $75p (-42 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html

Play Date: 03/18/2009

LLL (L-3 Communications--$63.46; +0.30; optionable): Military communications systems and equipment

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html

After Hours: $63.04

EARNINGS: 01/29/2009

STATUS: Put. Broad umbrella top starting in January that resulted in the February to early March drop. Sorry we missed that one. LLL bounced off the November low though it did undercut it some as it sold. It rebounded the past two weeks but volume slipped each day it rose until it showed a doji below the 18 day EMA (64.10) Wednesday on very low trade. Looking for a break lower on some rising volume to give us the downside play. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.

Volume: 983.971K Avg Volume: 1.255M

BUY POINT: $62.84 Volume=1.4M Target=$59.74 Stop=$64.14

POSITION: LLL PM - Apr. $65p (-51 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lll.html

Continuing Play ready to move:

Play Date: 03/10/2009

PCU (Southern Copper--$16.69; +0.60; optionable): Copper

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html

After Hours: $17.00

EARNINGS: 10/28/2008

STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PCU's pattern is setting up nicely as it climbed the past week to the February peak at the middle of the base and faded to test the 50 day EMA intraday, finding support and bouncing. Volume jumped up to average Wednesday as it rebounded as all commodities started to show better volume. Money flow has turned up sharply ahead of the price. Ready to move in as PCU makes the break.

Volume: 6.206M Avg Volume: 5.661M

BUY POINT: $16.82 Volume=6.5M Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.64

POSITION: PCU FC - June $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html