主题：03/19/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 03/19/2009

ADI (Analog Devices--$20.28; -0.33; optionable): Semiconductors

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html

EARNINGS: 02/18/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice 7 week base has formed, setting up the next upside move following the run off the December low. Might take another day or two to finish the base but a nice set up and want to have the play ready to go when it makes the break higher.

Volume: 5.734M Avg Volume: 6.01M

BUY POINT: $20.88 Volume=8.2M Target=$23.95 Stop=$19.57

POSITION: ADI FD - June $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adi.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$27.06; -0.52; optionable): China travel bookings

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html

After Hours: $27.19

EARNINGS: 02/09/2009

STATUS: Test breakout. CTRP was always a favorite for us, capable of strong long runs, and it can do it fast. It had hard times with most of the market but bottomed in November and then worked laterally in a 20 to 24ish trading range. It broke out last week and is moving laterally the past four sessions, forming a handle of sorts to the breakout. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of the stock, and when CTRP makes the break higher we are ready to move in.

Volume: 498.616K Avg Volume: 836.926K

BUY POINT: $27.76 Volume=1.2M Target=$32.88 Stop=$26.22

POSITION: QCT FE - June $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

IBM (International Business Machines--$92.66; +0.71; optionable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html

EARNINGS: 04/20/2009

STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Buying JAVA but that hardly impacted its nice 7 week pattern formed after the move higher off the November low. Moving laterally the past week to form the handle and looking for a break higher to move in on IBM and play a run to 100, bank some gains and then see how it responds at that point.

Volume: 9.9M Avg Volume: 10.984M

BUY POINT: $93.72 Volume=12M Target=$99.85 Stop=$90.22

POSITION: IBM DR - Apr. $90c (62 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ibm.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

SY (Sybase--$29.91; +0.88; optionable): Application software

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html

EARNINGS: 01/28/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher on huge trade Thursday in sympathy with the ORCL dividend announcement. The move jumped SY out of its 7 week handle to its nicely formed 23 week base. The handle is something of a cup with handle inside the bigger cup with handle. Money flow is screaming higher and we are ready to move in as SY continues higher and then finish the buy when it tests the breakout move.

Volume: 3.846M Avg Volume: 1.534M

BUY POINT: $30.18 Volume=1.8M Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.45

POSITION: SY FF - June $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sy.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/19/2009

CECO (Career Education--$21.51; -0.79; optionable): Education and training services

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html

After Hours: $21.51

EARNINGS: 02/19/2009

STATUS: Head and shoulders. Bearish 8 week topping pattern looks ready to send CECO down for a test toward its 200 day SMA at 18. A big flop lower Monday on very strong volume was followed by a low volume rebound through Wednesday and a fade to close at the 50 day EMA Thursday. Looking for a break lower on better trade to start it on the move lower. Money flow is falling ahead of price, and as CECO follows it we are looking for a 48%ish gain on that move.

Volume: 1.772M Avg Volume: 2.528M

BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=2.6M Target=$19.15 Stop=$21.81

POSITION: CUY PX - Apr. $22.50p (-53 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ceco.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

CELG (Celgene--$45.70; -1.47; optionable): Biotechnology

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html

After Hours: $45.80

EARNINGS: 01/29/2009

STATUS: Continuing downtrend. CELG rallied up to the 50 day EMA (48.98) and stalled there over the past week, fading back to try and hold support near 45. Has trended lower since August 2008 and it looks ready to trend lower again after it breaks lower here on some better trade. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.

Volume: 5.056M Avg Volume: 5.618M

BUY POINT: $45.34 Volume=6.4M Target=$42.26 Stop=$46.71

POSITION: LQH PI - Apr. $45p (-42 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/celg.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

PG (Procter & Gamble--$46.31; -1.71; optionable): Consumer products

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html

EARNINGS: 01/30/2009

STATUS: Continuing downtrend. After a nasty January and February decline PG rallied the past two weeks, clearing the 18 day EMA (47.56) this week but rolling back over Thursday. Looks ready for another fling to the downside. A run to the target lands a 42%ish gain.

Volume: 16.17M Avg Volume: 15.717M

BUY POINT: $46.15 Volume=18M Target=$44.11 Stop=$47.08

POSITION: PG PW - Apr. $47.50p (-52 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pg.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

UNH (Unitedhealth Group--$21.30; -0.65; optionable): Health care plans

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unh.html

EARNINGS: 04/21/2009

STATUS: Put. Horrid dive lower in late February on strong volume, then a rebound in March. As it moved higher volume faded, and the past week it has been basically nonexistent as UNH moved up to resistance from 22 to the 50 day EMA at 23.23. Started turning over Thursday and looking for UNH to continue to the downside and pick up some volume along the way. A move to the target and we have a 49%ish gain.

Volume: 8.968M Avg Volume: 13.109M

BUY POINT: $20.66 Volume=14M Target=$18.55 Stop=$21.33

POSITION: UHB PM - Apr. $22p (-56 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/unh.html