主题：【原创】简评奥巴马就职演说（一） -- 厚积薄发

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老大河待整

【原创】简评奥巴马就职演说（四，全文完）

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict or blame their society's ills on the West — know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.

To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.

【大意】对于穆斯林世界，我们将基于共同利益和互相尊重而寻求一条前进的新路。对世界各地那些寻求冲突并把自己社会的问题归罪于西方的领导人—请记住你的人民会根据你能做何建设而不是做何破坏来评判。对那些通过腐败、欺骗、和阻止不同声音来掌握权力的人，请记住你站在历史错误的一边；但是如果你愿意松开拳头的话，我们将会向你伸出手来。

对于贫困国家的人民，我们保证我们将和你们一道工作，使你们的农田丰收，清水长流；使饥饿的躯体得到营养，饥渴的头脑得到哺育。对那些和我们一样相对富裕的国家，我们要说我们不能再对我们国界之外的苦难漠不关心；我们也不能再不顾后果地消耗世界的资源。因为世界已经变了，我们必须随之改变。

【评】这里主要是空话套话，我本来没有必要翻译出来。但是想说说两点。第一，美国在对外政策上是有虚伪的一面的，虚伪性就在于对外政策为国内政策服务。例如，美国前段时间大肆鼓吹生物燃料，把玉米用来做燃料，导致农产品价格上涨。而世界银行在九十年代以来开始在美国的推动下（世界银行行长按惯例由美国总统任命），推行自由市场经济的“华盛顿共识”。许多发展中国家因此放弃粮食自给自足的策略，改为从国际市场购买。结果在前一段时间的粮食价格暴涨中，许多人吃不起饭，每天只吃一顿（菲律宾），或者吃类似于观音土一样的东西（海地）（《无声的海啸》，《世界银行“摧毁了”洪都拉斯的粮仓》。更多情况可参见彭博社对世界粮食危机的[URL=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=aSueX0nYxMrg ]专题报道[/URL]。)

第二，对外援助常常被商业利益所摧毁。奥巴马所提到的“饥渴的头脑得到哺育”让我想起来了MIT一位教授的“每个孩子一台电脑”的计划。这个计划现在遇到很大的生存危机，因为Intel针对低端市场，专门开发出Atom芯片。MIT计划的成本优势受到极大冲击。

所以在帮助穷国方面，光靠市场是不行的，有的时候还是得依靠强大政府的力量，干一些违背市场规律的事情。中国政府在此方面是行家，我不看好美国政府，尤其是在现在美国深陷双赤字的泥潭之时。所以奥巴马的话，听听可以，不用当真。

对了，关于粮食问题，可以请茅于轼茅先生解释一下，洪都拉斯，海地，菲律宾这些国家都干啥造天忌的事了？

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment — a moment that will define a generation — it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.

For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.

【大意】这两段讲美国人民将从何处吸取精神力量，奥巴马举了为国捐躯的士兵，减时工作以保证工友雇佣率的工人，消防队员，普通父母等等。一句话，给美国人打气，“英雄来自于人民，美国人民最伟大。”

【评】空话。

Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends — hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility — a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.

【大意】我们面临新的挑战；我们也会用新的工具来迎接挑战。但是那些我们的成功所依赖的价值—努力劳动和诚实，勇气和公平竞争，宽容和好奇心，忠诚和爱国主义—这些都不是新东西。然而这些东西却是真实的。他们才是贯穿于我们历史，使我们前进的力量，尽管他们默默无闻。我们现在最迫切需要的是回归这些真实。我们现在需要的是一个新的责任时代，是这样一种认识：我们每个美国人都有对我们自己，我们的国家，以及这个世界的义务。对这种义务，我们不应抱怨着被迫接受，而是应该愉快地去抢夺。因为我们坚信，没有什么比全力以赴的接受困难的工作更能使我们精神愉悦，更能体现我们的性格特点。

【评】再次呼吁美国传统价值观中的优良品质：“努力劳动和诚实，勇气和公平竞争，宽容和好奇心，忠诚和爱国主义”。但是我个人对普通美国人是否做好了准备表示怀疑。这种呼吁到了这里，已经有些苍白了。但是这也表现奥巴马头脑很清醒。在危机面前，人的主观能动性如何，结局可以很不相同。美国社会科学家在如何影响他人判读，从某种意义上操控最终结果方面有比较深入的研究。例如《Nudge》这本书。

所以我们看吧，这次危机中是中国人忍耐力强还是美国人忍耐力强。

This is the price and the promise of citizenship.

This is the source of our confidence — the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.

This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed — why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than 60 years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.

So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:

"Let it be told to the future world ... that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive ... that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it]."

【大意】接着阐述美国人民上述优良品质的来源，追溯到当年独立战争时在首都失守，士兵处于冰天雪地，面临敌人进攻的情况下，国父华盛顿是如何激励大家的。一句话，“美式民主自由是俺们力量的源泉。”

【评】老实讲，写到这里我也有点疲软了，一方面是困，主要的还是因为我们中华民族经历的苦难多去了，老美这点光荣历史不算啥。凡是读奥巴马的光荣史诗朗诵读得热血沸腾的小青年，建议看看《中国震撼世界》这本书。要讲信仰的力量，要讲光荣传统，我们中国什么都缺，就不缺这个。

America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

【大意】结尾激励美国人民面对困难要迎头而上，把自由这一伟大的礼物安全地送到未来的世代手中。

【总评】总结起来，从奥巴马的演讲中我读出如下几点：

1.奥巴马很清楚这次经济危机的根源在美国人本身（当然，需要找替罪羊的时候，他肯定是不含糊的）。

2.意识到在困难面前，美国人民的信心很重要。

3.在给予美国人民信心这一点上，似乎奥巴马也没有什么办法，只能反复宣讲美国的光荣历史和美国的天赋使命，激励大家。

4.对美国走出危机，美国人需要具有什么品质，奥巴马看得比较透。

5. 最重要的是，奥巴马对未来政府的组织形式，政策走向，保持一种开放态度，初步具有了“猫论”和“和谐社会”的萌芽。这是我天朝最大的威胁。

6.透露了一丝外交政策的改变，会更务实，但是也有可能更阴险狡猾。

7.老美的精神原子弹，即美式免煮石油的价值观，可能会在这次经济危机中起到很大的作用。当然前提是奥巴马将之成功引爆，并把力量引向正确方向。

最后，我前文提及的电话会议，特别强调了09年地缘政治的风险，尤其是点了巴基斯坦的名。大家且拭目以待。

（好困啊。大家原谅俺的虎头蛇尾吧，实在不行鸟。。。）

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【原创】简评奥巴马就职演说（一）

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