主题：10/01/2008 Market View -- 宁子

这是我花钱买的，觉得还行，贴出来和大家分享。如果大家喜欢，能提升一下这里的人气，我就接着贴。这个贴只做参考，不要做为炒股依据。换句话说，赔钱不要找我哈。

SUMMARY:

- Market backs off, once more awaiting a bailout decision.

- GE next in line at the Buffett well. Savior or Mr. Potter with an affable smile?

- ISM disappointment is a setback for improving economic data, indicating the credit freeze has yet to be felt impact.

- What if a bailout worked as planned and didn't help the economy?

- September lives up to its infamous reputation and now we see if October can again play the market bottom month.

A quiet session after a lot of violent moves.

Big selloff, big bounce, then nothing. Stocks started lower and you could blame a 23% decline in weekly mortgage applications and GE getting its target cut by analysts. There was definitely no new money coming into the market even with the start of a new month and a new quarter. A better ADP jobs index (-8K versus the -50K expected), LIBOR rates coming down, and lower crude yet again (supplies rose 4.3M bbl versus the 2.8M expected) could not get things loosened up.

Nonetheless stocks started lower and were bouncing after the first half hour. Then the ISM came out and at 43.5 it was well off expectations and the recent range at 50ish. That rattled investors and stocks sold to session lows with NASDAQ down 45 points, DJ30 down 220 points. Buffett struck again, however, putting $3B into GE though as with the GS deal, he got a lot more value than $3B with perpetual preferred stocks with 10% dividends, rights for more shares, etc.

Everyone hangs on Buffett's every word as if he dispenses his knowledge with no motive other than to make you happy and wealthy, something like a financial Santa Clause. Buffett never uttered a word that was not designed to make him money. All he said as the financial crisis was nothing other than an occasional he saw no value. Of course not; he wanted things to get really ugly and he coveted some financial institutions for his Berkshire Hathaway. There was no commentary at all from Buffett and then bang, he puts $30B in GS. Then bang, another wad of money into GE. Then he gets on the air and says the bailout has to take place or we are in for a financial last supper or something like that. Now he wants it passed because it boosts his investments.

No, Buffett is no great benefactor out there to help us all get through this. He is doing what Potter did in 'It's a Wonderful Life' during the bank runs of the 1930's: everyone was selling but he stepped in and bought. He simply has a better smile and doesn't wish harm on anyone. He is a businessman who takes care of his investors. That is why the give him money and he doesn't let them down. Problem is, however, our legislators and others fawn all over him for advice. He will give it, and it will be sound advice of the kind that benefits his interests.

In any event that helped buoy the market and the indices rallied and took out the morning high. The rest of the afternoon was volatile and after SP500 and DJ30 turned positive mid-afternoon the indices finished lower. Couldn't hold all of the recovery, but it was not bad action. The market can stall around for a few sessions and then break higher once more and show the follow through, indicating the market has a chance at putting together a more sustained upside move. We will see.

TECHNICAL. As noted the intraday action was not that bad. A lower open, a midmorning selloff, and then a recovery close to flat on the NYSE large caps. When taking a breather after a big rebound this is what you want to see.

INTERNALS. After what the market reeled off the prior two sessions and indeed over the past month, the Wednesday action is hardly worth mention. Flat breadth, much weaker volume falling to average on NYSE and below average on NASDAQ. Flat internals matching the market, and that is just what you want to see on a market day off.

• 说明在我第一次的贴里。连接见内。
• 说明在我第一次的贴里。连接见内。